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Showing posts from July, 2026

Sovereign AI Is an Ecosystem, Not a Model

 Artificial intelligence has become an irreversible force. Whether we welcome it or not, frontier models developed by companies such as OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Anthropic, and Meta will continue to define the technological frontier for the foreseeable future. No nation can realistically ignore these models, nor should it attempt to isolate itself from global AI progress. Before proceeding, I would like to make one point clear. I am not an AI expert . I am a retired professor whose work has primarily focused on theoretical analysis. The views presented here therefore reflect my perspective as an observer of technological and industrial systems rather than as a practitioner in AI. This is not simply a matter of technological competition. As populations age, workforces shrink, and healthcare costs continue to rise, AI is becoming an economic necessity rather than a technological luxury. Sustaining productivity across government, healthcare, manufacturing, finance, education, and other...

Beyond Optimality: Lessons from Shin Jin-seo's Victory over KataGo

Shin Jin-seo's recent victory  (2026-07-21) over KataGo demonstrates a subtle but profound distinction between optimal decision making and winning against a particular opponent. The result suggests that maximizing an objective function is not always equivalent to maximizing the probability of defeating an adversary whose own decision process is constrained by optimization. One moment in the third and final game was particularly striking. Shin intentionally accepted a slight local loss in the corner, but in return secured outside thickness by steering the game into an essentially single-path sequence that even KataGo was forced to follow.  Although this exchange was locally suboptimal, it significantly simplified the subsequent game and ultimately became one of the decisive factors in his victory.  KataGo is designed to maximize its expected winning probability. Formally, it selects an action $a\in A$ by solving $a^*=\arg\max_{a\in A}\mathbb{E}[U(a)]$, where $U(a)$ d...

Dynamic Valuation of Memory Semiconductor Stocks

Recently (July 2026), financial markets have exhibited behavior that appears irrational over short time horizons. In particular, memory semiconductor stocks have experienced unusually large price fluctuations despite exceptionally strong earnings. Leading companies such as Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and Micron have traded at only 5--7 times forward P/E , a low valuation given their record profitability.  The apparent contradiction reflects uncertainty about the appropriate valuation multiple. The market is caught between two opposing forces: robust earnings growth driven by AI infrastructure investment and the possibility that aggressive capital expenditures may eventually create excess capacity, leading to oversupply and weaker future profitability. Consequently, the key investment question is no longer, "How large are today's earnings?" Instead, the market asks, "Can today's earnings be sustained over many years?" Equivalently, investors focus less on ...