Why Correct Predictions Are Not Enough: Survival Comes First
Recently, I came across a news headline that immediately caught my attention: "Why Did the 25-Year-Old AI Genius of Wall Street, Leopold Aschenbrenner, Fail?" That headline inspired me to write this blog post because I have seen friends experience similar situations in their own investment journeys. I should also mention that I am not a professional investor. What follows is simply my personal perspective on investing through the lens of mathematics, with significant assistance from ChatGPT. On July 30, 2026, Leopold Aschenbrenner, the 25-year-old founder of the San Francisco-based hedge fund *Situational Awareness*, sent a letter to his investors. A former OpenAI researcher, Aschenbrenner graduated as the valedictorian of Columbia University in 2021 with a B.A. in economics, mathematics, and statistics. In the letter, he admitted that his fund had lost **67\% of its value in July alone**. For someone who had been celebrated as one of the brightest minds in AI investing, the ...